Conference abstract
Cross-cutting lessons from COVID-19: the statistical analysis point of view
Pan African Medical Journal - Conference Proceedings. 2023:18(90).03
Oct 2023.
doi: 10.11604/pamj-cp.2023.18.90.2169
Archived on: 03 Oct 2023
Contact the corresponding author
Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, reproduction number, Cameroon
Oral presentation
Cross-cutting lessons from COVID-19: the statistical analysis point of view
Whegang Youdom Solange1,&, Henri EZ Tonnang1, Djam Alain1, Kouanfack Charles1, Choukem Simeon Pierre1
1Faculté de Médecine et des Sciences Pharmaceutiques, Universite de Dschang, Dschang, Cameroun
&Corresponding author
Introduction: the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) pandemic has frightened the world and become a global health problem including low- and middle-income countries. Mathematical models have been used in several countries to highlight potential interventions to slow down its burden. They include deterministic and non-deterministic models. Our objective was to use modeling approaches to improve the understanding of the spread of COVID-19 and enhance disease control strategies.
Methods: in Cameroon, the Official total cases were described/modeled with a simple SIRD model with phase-to-phase modeling to capture possible changes in the epidemic behavior, with weekly estimates of the reproduction number. Markov chain process was handled to examine the probability of death due to COVID-19: We hypothesized that an infected individual who recovered could be re-infected again. In addition, daily incidence data were used to estimate the daily reproduction number before each epidemic peak. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach was called to analyze the dynamic of the effective reproduction number R and forecast the new number of infected contacts.
Results: overall, the social distancing parameter was less than 0.5 during all phases of the epidemic. As of July 14, 2021, the estimate was 0.464 i.e., 54% compliance of social distancing, and 56% as of September 29, 2021. Before the first peak of the epidemic, R0 was estimated at 6.8; it was greater than 1 (R0=2.43) by May 22, 2020, when the initial measures implemented by the government to control the spread of the disease were relaxed. It reaches values of 10 in 2021. There was a constant increase in the reproduction number and a non-neglected probability of death.
Conclusion: COVID-19 in the country has made significant changes in the population. Mathematical tools enable disease control strategies. Indeed, the reproduction number estimates give better control of the epidemic, in that they give an idea of the number of people to be immunized. Prevention through vaccination was an option to reach more people and reduce the community expansion of the disease.
Cross-cutting lessons from COVID-19: the statistical analysis point of view
Whegang Youdom Solange1,&, Henri EZ Tonnang1, Djam Alain1, Kouanfack Charles1, Choukem Simeon Pierre1
1Faculté de Médecine et des Sciences Pharmaceutiques, Universite de Dschang, Dschang, Cameroun
&Corresponding author
Introduction: the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) pandemic has frightened the world and become a global health problem including low- and middle-income countries. Mathematical models have been used in several countries to highlight potential interventions to slow down its burden. They include deterministic and non-deterministic models. Our objective was to use modeling approaches to improve the understanding of the spread of COVID-19 and enhance disease control strategies.
Methods: in Cameroon, the Official total cases were described/modeled with a simple SIRD model with phase-to-phase modeling to capture possible changes in the epidemic behavior, with weekly estimates of the reproduction number. Markov chain process was handled to examine the probability of death due to COVID-19: We hypothesized that an infected individual who recovered could be re-infected again. In addition, daily incidence data were used to estimate the daily reproduction number before each epidemic peak. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach was called to analyze the dynamic of the effective reproduction number R and forecast the new number of infected contacts.
Results: overall, the social distancing parameter was less than 0.5 during all phases of the epidemic. As of July 14, 2021, the estimate was 0.464 i.e., 54% compliance of social distancing, and 56% as of September 29, 2021. Before the first peak of the epidemic, R0 was estimated at 6.8; it was greater than 1 (R0=2.43) by May 22, 2020, when the initial measures implemented by the government to control the spread of the disease were relaxed. It reaches values of 10 in 2021. There was a constant increase in the reproduction number and a non-neglected probability of death.
Conclusion: COVID-19 in the country has made significant changes in the population. Mathematical tools enable disease control strategies. Indeed, the reproduction number estimates give better control of the epidemic, in that they give an idea of the number of people to be immunized. Prevention through vaccination was an option to reach more people and reduce the community expansion of the disease.
